Insurers Say Half The World Could Be Killed By Climate Change
In the coming decades. So why is there silence?
More than half of the world’s population - at least four billion people - could die over the coming decades because of climate change and societal collapse.
I would wager that’s the most important story of your lifetime.
But chances are, you haven’t even read it, heard it, seen it. It was in the news cycle briefly in January 2025, and came from extremely credible sources.
It was reported on by the likes of The Guardian, Grist, and the insurance media but soon disappeared.
No doubt Taylor Swift released another song about a former boyfriend, and journalists became distracted.
Thankfully, some people did not forget. As I write, an event is planned for June 16, 2026 at 7pm BST - if you’re reading this before that date, you can sign up to The 4 Billion Dead International Public Call at tinyurl.com/4-Billion-Dead.
What Are The Facts?
A report titled Planetary Solvency - Finding Our Balance With Nature was published in January 2025 by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) in collaboration with the University of Exeter.
The IFoA is the professional body for actuaries, who underpin global insurance and pension markets - so it’s basically the insurance industry, which is why it carries significant weight. They understand the risks. They need to know the facts.
The report found that, at 3°C or more of heating by 2050, there would probably be more than 4 billion deaths across the world. That’s half of Earth’s population.
As money seems to be the only thing to move the needle in politics and the media, it was also predicted that the global economy could face at least a 50% loss in GDP, unless immediate policy action is taken.
Crucially, the report explicitly stated that there was no realistic plan in place to avoid this worst case scenario.
And incredibly, even the official report did not make the bleakness of the situation clear - more on that later when we look at the communication crisis.
What Is The Likelihood of 3°C by 2050?
First of all, let’s not forget that all projections come with a ‘best case’ scenario and a ‘worst case’ scenario. But ALL scenarios are possible.
Humans tend to dismiss the ‘worst case’ as scaremongering, which will one day be our downfall.
If there is even the slightest chance that half the world’s population will die over the coming few decades, shouldn’t we be doing something about that?
Current mainstream projections point to an average temperature rise of roughly 2.8°C by 2100 (The United Nations Environment Programme). But that level is built on climate assumptions that the report authors now consider to be incorrect.
The IFoA/Exeter report, using risk management methodology, rates the probability of a ‘catastrophic’ 2°C+ by 2050 at more than 90%, and an ‘extreme’ 3°C+ by 2050 at a staggering 40-60%.
For insurance companies, 40-60% is not an unlikely event. It is not extreme, it is not scaremongering. It is now built in to their calculations for our future premiums.
Furthermore, a subsequent IFoA/Exeter University report in January 2026 - Parasol Lost - identified that global warming is accelerating faster than models predicted.
And once you account for insane developments like the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement - a legally binding international treaty on climate change - the projections spin even more towards the upper end.
Who Is Behind The Public Call?
Renowned Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expert Dr Peter Carter is joined by Extinction Rebellion (XR) founder Roger Hallam in leading the June 16 event - though there have also been initiatives and public Zoom meetings across the world.
You’d expect something a little more ‘in your face’ for a warning that half the world is about to die, but climate communication continues to fail, badly.
The Public Call encourages us to “take courage, come and hear this truth, and find out how we are going to act together. We are doing this for all of us.”
When you consider that claims of ‘4 Billion Dead’ has solid foundations in verified climate science and insurance industry risk predictions, it is simply staggering that most people have no clue about this.
Why Is Communication Failing?
This is a whole internet of articles by itself. But in this case, I believe there is one over-riding reason.
It’s in the future.
The 4 Billion Dead campaign states that half the world could die ‘this century’.
The end of the century is currently 74 years away - that’s not going to be treated as urgent by the media, or by the general public, even though it will severely affect our children, our grandchildren, and maybe even ourselves.
The report itself focuses on the shorter term. But even 2050 is seen by most people as too far in the future to care about.
Today there are bills to pay, bombs to avoid, riots to swerve, jobs to be lost. There is too much going on to care about what might happen by 2050 or 2100.
Even when that’s the death of half the world.
We always need to make climate, nature and pollution crisis communication about NOW.
And then we link the policies of fossil fuel-supporting political parties to those four billion deaths. Let’s not beat about the bush here.
Real talk saves lives. Hopefully.
Spot The Apocalypse
Even the official report did not spell out the 4 billion figure. No wonder, maybe, that the media couldn’t be bothered to spend time on it. Though I would hope the press release did at least lead with ‘Half The World Might Die’.
This is where the biggest story in human history lies hidden. On page 32, in Appendix 1: Risk Impact Matrix / Figure 12…
Let’s zoom in on the devastation contained within a neat table…
You can read the full report here.
Seriously humans, we’ve got to get better at talking about these things…